Sunday, 6 July 2014

What you measure may not be what you want to see

Wind Speed for 315 days. Verticle axis shows Wind Speed  in meters per second on a day.
Note that wind "speed" is less now, but in fact wind is blowing high with "force"
It has again and again been proved that statistics is a lie. A damn lie.  We see that in corporate offices and news papers every day. A nicely laid string of numbers or graph may not and need not reflect the ground reality.  Be it stock market, farmer's suicide, GDP growth, Sales or any other. They (Statistics) only touch one angle of any issue. For presentation purpose it is further simplified and made to appear more trivial. But ground reality may be much more complicated, having so many dimensions to it.  It is this reason why many of the solutions fail because they attempt to redress only a part of the problem by simply looking at what has been presented to them. Probably giving raise to a new problem or side effect.

The anemometer  installed in my Farm at Nachankulam has so far run 23985 kilometers since January, 2014 After assembling all the figures upto 15.06.2014 from the anemometer, and putting togather on paper of 315 days of observation, it is surprising to find that the moving average speed at any given day is going down. It
Water splashing due to heavy wind
indeed was down in May, but in June when I went to install the Wind Pump the wind speed was so high that everything was flying.  The windmill was rotating so much that we could not properly assemble the parts. We had to arrest its motion by tying a rope to the propellers every time climbing atop the tower.

Water was splashing before reaching the ground, transmission rods were hitting against the frame,  and dry wind was blowing so much that you cannot talk or hear freely. Big Iron gates of the farm if kept open were being pushed by the wind, and it took two people to hold them back.   Every 5 minutes you will head for drinking water bottle as the wind was so high and dry it will remove all moisture out of you.

Yet the same period is shown as poor wind period in the above graph.  Anemometer cannot be faulty as I saw it was rotating fast. The counter was also clicking. What is the difference ? apparantly when the graph showed high variation during the day and night, the reality was that the wind energy was less. Now when wind is blowing at with high energy, the wind speeds are consistently showing as less.  Note that it is very consistent now.  The day/night variations are not much.  Subbu has an observation on this. He says now the wind is swirling and changing directions often now.  Earlier it was consistantly coming from one direction, perhaps fast.

I think now the wind is blowing with more volume and force, but not necessarily faster. So anemometer will show only wind speed and not wind energy.  Need to think if we are measuring the right thing. I am also not sure if there is a meter to measure the wind force in volume and not in speeds.

******

No comments:

Post a Comment