What you measure may not be what you want to see

Wind Speed for 315 days. Verticle axis shows Wind Speed  in meters per second on a day.
Note that wind "speed" is less now, but in fact wind is blowing high with "force"

It has again and again been proved that statistics is a lie. A damn lie.  We see that in corporate offices and news papers every day. A nicely laid string of numbers or graph may not and need not reflect the ground reality.  Be it stock market, farmer's suicide, GDP growth, Sales or any other. They (Statistics) only touch one angle of any issue. For presentation purpose it is further simplified and made to appear more trivial. But ground reality may be much more complicated, having so many dimensions to it.  It is this reason why many of the solutions fail because they attempt to redress only a part of the problem by simply looking at what has been presented to them. Probably giving raise to a new problem or side effect.

The anemometer  installed in my Farm at Nachankulam has so far run 23985 kilometers since January, 2014 After assembling all the figures upto 15.06.2014 from the anemometer, and putting togather on paper of 315 days of observation, it is surprising to find that the moving average speed at any given day is going down. It

Water splashing due to heavy wind

indeed was down in May, but in June when I went to install the Wind Pump the wind speed was so high that everything was flying.  The windmill was rotating so much that we could not properly assemble the parts. We had to arrest its motion by tying a rope to the propellers every time climbing atop the tower.

Water was splashing before reaching the ground, transmission rods were hitting against the frame,  and dry wind was blowing so much that you cannot talk or hear freely. Big Iron gates of the farm if kept open were being pushed by the wind, and it took two people to hold them back.   Every 5 minutes you will head for drinking water bottle as the wind was so high and dry it will remove all moisture out of you.

Yet the same period is shown as poor wind period in the above graph.  Anemometer cannot be faulty as I saw it was rotating fast. The counter was also clicking. What is the difference ? apparantly when the graph showed high variation during the day and night, the reality was that the wind energy was less. Now when wind is blowing at with high energy, the wind speeds are consistently showing as less.  Note that it is very consistent now.  The day/night variations are not much.  Subbu has an observation on this. He says now the wind is swirling and changing directions often now.  Earlier it was consistantly coming from one direction, perhaps fast.

I think now the wind is blowing with more volume and force, but not necessarily faster. So anemometer will show only wind speed and not wind energy.  Need to think if we are measuring the right thing. I am also not sure if there is a meter to measure the wind force in volume and not in speeds.

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Wind Speed at Nachankulam 114 days

Today happened to be a cloudy day. Subbu is eagerly waiting for the shower. I am told, rain is coming everywhere except this place.  If it rains at least for a day, we can give some rest to the workers. Wind mill is also not coming anytime in this week.

Below is the measurement of wind speed upto a week back. The remaining readings are in another notebook which Subbu could not have access when he read this out today.  the graph is showing steady decline in the speed and is consistently low. This is a worry.  There is however small blips above 3 Meters/second. Unless the new wind mill is calibrated properly to work in low speeds.... let us wait and see..  It is going to be a challenge that after installation if the wind mill doesnot turn enough, then we are left with no other alternative. The handpump is being removed. The only possibility could be to rush for 2nd boring and install the handpump.

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Wind speed at Nachankulam - 83 days

The below is observation for the past 83 days.  This time I have provided two lines, one for day and another for night. This dipiction gives a different prespective. It also establishes that Day time wind speed is higher than night.  There was an error in assumption earlier that night wind was faster. But stands corrected now. Day wind is faster than night. 

Secondly there are long periods of low wind, both day and night. Between 10th and 18th February the wind speeds were below 3 Meters / Second.  Here 3 m/s is the minimum speed required to kick start the rotor of the wind mill. May be it could be 2.5 m/s as per manufacturer. whatever it is, keeping some safety margin is better.  Such long periods of low wind means, we need to store water when it is available and use it judiciously.  This can be linked to the earlier post of water tank. Water tank is must now to store water. 

The good news is there is WIND.  So next month once the new ABS windmill is up and running, i should hopefully solve the water crisis.

Presently water is still being pumped manually using handpump. Kandan is unable to cope with the heat and the hard work. One more worker is under considertation for appointment, preferably a women. Women employees are good at pouring water to each plant as per their needs. After all they are mothers. I want to establish a gender balance from the beginning. Once the wind mill is up, then kandan and the new worker can start the nursary farm and keep expanding... That is the idea.

Subbu has made all arrangements on foundations for the wind pump.  Using the template couriered by ABS, the bolts have been fixed in concrete pillars beneth the surface.  There was a proposal to remove the handpump now in order to fix the middle template given by ABS. That is required for holding the wind mill pump assembly and transmission gear. But this idea was ruled out by me and the team. We will remove in the last minute.  We need water till the wind mill is delivered anyway which is 10 days away.

Dancing Wu-Li Masters - Wind Speed at Nachankulam - Update for 50 days

"The Wu Li Master dances with his student. The Wu Li Master does not teach, but the student learns. The Wu Li Master always begins at the center, the heart of the matter"

When I took the update on Animometer reading dictacted by Subb from 1500 Kms away and created a graph, I was wonder struck.  I was bit anxious as i was noting down. Because i had placed order for wind pump only based on 20 days of study. The meter has so far run 9485 Kilometers in 50 days.

Nature has displayed its own elegance and beauty.  The Wind Speed is observed high in the night and low in the day time. The contrast is striking. How is that the wind energy oscillating on surface of earth so perfectly to the rhythm of Day and Night ?!. I am wonder struck and happy to learn that I have adequate wind in the night to run the wind pump which is going to be installed in a month.  That is a privilage you cannot get in Solar.

50 Days of reading from 1st Jan to 18th Feb, 2014

Closer examination shows that wind speed is constant during the day time. It is during the night that it picks up. On the day I visited the farm (30.01.2014 at 12 noon), the meter was showing 5842. That entry is missing above because we did not record it as we were busy which explains the gap in between.



I took this photo when I visited


The wind speeds have easily exceeded 8 meters per second on few days, which was not the case in January. Anemometer moving parts were tight at that time ?. I cannot rule that out. But graph shows it otherwise. In fact anemometer should have rusted and dusty in 50 days and its performance should come down without lubrication.But what we see is otherwise.

Well I also had another mental correction to digest. On my visit I observed wind was coming from North to South. Contrary to my assumption that it should come from South West (Kerala). Or is it wind is changing direction during night and day. ? I donot have measurements for that as of now.

 



Wind Speed at Nachankulam - First week of January, 2014

Now we have 7 days of data.   the data shows the wind speed is declining day by day. Speeds are high during day time and less during night.  The X axis indicates speeds in Meters / Second.  anything above 3 meters per second is considered reasonable. This is at a height of 19 feet. I must admit that the land is 10 feet lower than road level.

Suppose if I install a wind pump? Will I be able to store water and irrigate during lean periods.  Let me wait for few more days to see the trend.  Unfortunately we donot have any help from outside to know the wind velocity in this area, even though there are many professional wind mills available just 30 Kms away.

The wind mills quotes collected so far from different companies indicate that they cost anywhere upwards of 2.5 lacs for 12 meter tower with around 5 meter rotor wing diameter. That is a lot of money. I must be damn sure about the decision if it is to be taken.  The same applies to Solar also.



The First Anemometer readings - wind speed measurement on Farm.

Now the Anemometer is working fine. Subbu discovered a small switch that had disengaged the meter. Now it is working fine after it was pushed back. Subbu and team  made an easy ladder path to climb up the tripod pole made out of Casurina poles connected with wooden steps and plank, at a height of 19 feet and says he enjoys staying over there.  Cool. 

The below are the anemometer readings that have been received from him.  The anemometer has counter measuring in xxxxx.yy where x is in kilometer and y in meters. He said he was waiting or y counter to come to zero before noting down. Then I corrected him and asked him to give two digit decimals also as it is without waiting unnecessarily.  Otherise they will become nervous. First three columns are inputs. Balance are calculated by me over excel sheet. 

 The first Anemometer readings.

Date	Time	meter Reading	Time interval in Hours	Incremental Distance Kms	Speed (KM)/ Hour	Speed Meters per Sec
01-01-2014	06:00	0	0.0	0.00
01-01-2014	17:00	343	11.0	343.00	31	9	day
01-01-2014	18:10	361	1.2	18.00	15	4	day
02-01-2014	11:00	625	16.8	264.00	16	4	night
03-01-2014	09:00	745.6	22.0	120.60	5	2	day/night
03-01-2014	11:00	793.5	2.0	47.90	24	7	day

I am not sure if I have done the calculations correctly. But common sense is saying it is reasonable. As per this measurement I am getting a wind speed comfortably above average.  3 Meters/sec is considered slow and 4 Meters/Sec is considered medium speed.  Surprisingly the internet is not having any information regarding the actual field measurements made in our part of country (or for that matter anywhere else) inspite of the fact that there is so much of hue and cry about wind energy and crores are being invested in.

The good news is that these speeds are at 19 feet height / 6 meters.  The actual windpump rotor if purchased will be at 15 meters height.

Another finding is that speeds at day time is high and night speeds are bit low. I cannot conclude anything now, but need to watch for atleast next 30 days before taking a big decision - wheather to buy a windmill or not..

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